Mega calls
There is still a strong belief among bankers that 2026 can turn out to be a historic year for IPOs in the US—largely thanks to the potential mega listings of companies at the leading edge of artificial intelligence. On the sidelines of the annual Morgan Stanley TMT Conference in San Francisco last week, I caught up with Lauren Garcia Belmonte and Diana Doyle, the firm’s co-heads of tech ECM Americas, to talk about the year ahead. Here are some edited highlights from our chat. —Ryan Gould
The world seems to be changing before our eyes. Can the market absorb several mega IPOs?
LGB: I think the volatility is here to stay and there’s no question that 2026 through 2027, we may have some of the largest IPOs in history. We unquestionably believe that the capital will exist in the public markets to fund many of the IPOs to come. What gives us confidence is how remarkably orderly things have been. Support from some of these IPOs comes from rebalancing, trimming positions in the largest cap companies and incorporating index inclusion over time.
DD: There has been a lot of speculation around potential mega-cap companies coming to the public markets. From our discussions with investors, it feels like there is a lot of interest and support for that type of move.
What if you’re not one of those three or four companies rumored to be looking at potential trillion-dollar IPOs this year?
DD: Away from those mega-cap companies, you have a broader group of more normalized companies that make up the vast majority of the IPO pipeline. Most companies of this scale that have the financial profile to have a successful IPO are generally not going to be pressured into the market in an unnatural moment. It has been more bespoke advice rather than blanket guidance about whether this is or isn’t the moment.
Has it become more difficult to go public?
LGB: The bar to go public has been elevated. The requirements in articulating your competitive moat, your defensibility in AI, how you may be using it to advance your business or protect it, those stakes have all risen on top having good growth and a profitability profile. Each company has an opportunity that independent of whether big companies move forward.
What’s the biggest risk to getting an IPO over the line today?
DD: If you commit to an IPO and there is announcement during your two-week roadshow period that causes investors to question your competitive moat, durability of your business model or your revenue model, that is a real risk.
A lot is being written and said about the case for retail allocations on some of these potential mega IPOs. Will retail become a bigger piece of the pie?
LGB: Retail being 25% of the market was not the case 10 or 15 years ago. The engagement level, the dollars and the sophistication of retail investors has stepped up meaningfully. We saw greater than historical allocations to retail in the class of 2025 IPOs. There were offerings last year that went well into the double-digits. This is reflective of the change in market constructs and market participation. If demand is not absorbed at the time of the IPO, it will come in the aftermarket.
How is the tone in Washington affecting companies and their plans to go public? Is there any link to the M&A markets?
LGB: The tone we’ve been hearing from the SEC and Washington is very much in favor of capital formation and efficient fundraising for companies.
DD: The perception of a much more business-friendly regulatory environment as it relates to M&A has changed some of the thinking of private companies that could explore an IPO alternative. That may take some companies in the IPO pipeline out of the IPO market and put them in the hands of a strategic.
This conference has been taking place for nearly 30 years. Does this one feel different given the recent software selloff?
LGB: There’s great innovation and disruption underway right now. I think what several of our speakers noted is just the pace of change that people had anticipated is actually even faster than those expectations. The world is moving very quickly. There are a lot of companies that are very focused on how they continue to innovate and disrupt themselves, if not prepare for potential disruption, to make sure that they’ve got a strong future ahead.
DD: With some of the moves recently we saw in the market in software, investors had some more indiscriminate selling. The opportunity to hear from companies directly and address referendums as a company with investors has actually helped bring clarity for many investors into what the future could look like.
How would you summarize the feeling here around the impact of AI?
DD: We’re here in the AI capital of the world, and I think there is no debate anymore that this technology is here to stay. There’s optimism in the air about what AI is going to do. Every company has realized that AI is going to need to be a part of the story. For companies that are here trying to engage investors, it’s all about articulating it in a way that gives confidence that you either have a plan or you are intending to adapt. Preparing for that is going to be a huge step in the journey to going public that may not have been required 12 months ago.
IPO watch
Speaking of those big listings coming down the pipes, SpaceX, the space exploration company controlled by Elon Musk, has signaled it is planning a mega-IPO in the coming months. But is it really worth $1.75 trillion? Anthony Hughes tackles this and other key questions surrounding the deal.
Pershing Square has filed for an IPO, in a deal that would see billionaire Bill Ackman’s hedge fund make its debut on a US exchange alongside a new closed-end fund. Ackman is looking to raise between $5 billion and $10 billion for Pershing Square USA in the combined deal.
Financial technology company SumUp Payments is inviting banks to pitch for roles on an IPO in Europe after the company considered a US listing. The listing could value SumUp at $10 billion or more, write Leonard Kehnscherper, Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro and Vinicy Chan.
Staffing constraints led Citic Securities and China Securities International to drop out as overall coordinators of a Hong Kong IPO, report Dave Sebastian and Julia Fioretti.
Ventilation and filtration systems provider Madison Air Solutions filed for an IPO to be led by Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Jefferies and Wells Fargo. Bloomberg News reported earlier that the company would seek to raise at least $2 billion.
Data drop
StubHub and Netskope are among 2025’s class of worst-performing IPOs that are facing of a “negative feedback loop” as selling restrictions for long-term investors and management teams are lifted, said Mike Bellin, the head of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ US listing practice.
